Baseline event rate, the Concorde fallacy, and the topography of cardiac risk

Summary 

Cardiac risk stratification is the attempt to delineate who is at risk of cardiac event and who is not. Increasingly, the medical literature is filled with novel methods and markers of baseline risk assessment. This body of literature has been criticized broadly for making claims beyond what is statistically justified. In this hypothesis, we will explore an alterative explanation for the limitations of baseline risk assessment. I will contend that current risk models commit a logical error called the Concorde fallacy. The role of risk topography will be suggested as a novel method to rescue cardiac risk models.